How to Avoid Betting on Fixed Or Stiff Races
Author: Bill Peterson
While the majority of horse races are honest races the temptation to fix a race and profit from it is going to get the best of some people from time to time. So as in anything else involving human beings and money, there is a certain amount of larceny in horse racing. I don't think it means you should stop betting on races for that reason only, but that you should be cautious.
I often heard howls of pain and disbelief after a horse race and cries of foul and fixed race, too. That is unavoidable because some people just can't face the fact that they lost and they made the wrong choices. Sometimes we even make the right choices and lose.
How can you make the right choices and lose? If you know that a particular bet wins about a third of the time and pays a profit of 15% ROI and you bet on that situation every time it arises, that means that for every three races you bet on, you will lose two. That is not uncommon in horse racing handicapping and betting.
It takes a certain amount of discipline and stoicism to handle that kind of life, but it is the only way to come out ahead in the long run. Whoever said that gamblers play the horses for instant gratification, didn't know what he was talking about. Good horseplayers who grind it out, race after race, have to have the patience of Job.
So how in the world can you tell before a race if it is fixed? Don't bother looking at the odds board because that will not tell the story. When the fix is in, the money isn't dumped into the pari mutuel pools at the track where everyone, including the racing secretary and other officials could see it. Sometimes a fixed race is bet in the offshore betting services by a group or syndicate that has arranged the fix.
The way they manage to put it over on the people who run those offshore betting services, which are illegal as far as the United States Government is concerned, by the way, is to set up multiple accounts that appear to the betting service or offshore sportsbook as legitimate accounts held by individuals in the US or some other country. They try to weed out accounts that are opened with false ID's but many times the people who fix the races have access to good false ID's that appear real to the sportsbook.
They then make bets on the horse or horses they know will win the race and cash on them through all those accounts. Sportsbooks may be suspicious of the fact that so many people bet a longshot and against a favorite and all got lucky on the same race, but they usually honor the bets because they don't want a bad reputation. It is hard enough getting people to gamble through them without appearing to be welschers.
If someone is going to fix a race, the best way to do it is to get one or two jockeys to stiff a big favorite. Then they can either bet the logical contenders, or for more insurance, in a short field, just buy off all the jockeys. Most jockeys are honest hard working people who value their licenses and won't stiff a horse. So that is a very difficult way to go.
My advice is, if you don't want to bet on a stiff race, don't bet on a horse going off at less than 2-1. That is the very horse that might be stiffed.
What is a good method for betting at horse races?
is there a good way of knowing which horse is better to suited to a certain type/ length of race? how do you determine which horse to bet on?
People have asked this question for years. If your a novice punter (gambler), the favourite usually wins about 1/3 of the time.
What are YOUR strategies for betting on horse races?
I know some people like to make a trifecta box with the first, second, and fourth favorite horses. Or like in the Preakness where you have one heavily bet on favorite and the rest of the field with great odds, you put an exacta wheel with the favorite over the field. But what do you guys like to do/what wins you the most money?
Thanks if you Answer!!!
i just pick the winners…… its that easy!
but if i told you how i pick the winners…. i would have to shoot you. lol!
its a trade secret!
I’m writing a novel in which the antagonists fix horse races for betting. What are some ways of doing this?
Some years back, the security wonks who monitor betting patterns at tracks and try to detect things that are, ahem, funny, noticed that a particular trainer’s horses always seemed to lose when they were the betting favorites. Drug tests came up negative and there didn’t seem to be any pattern as far as riders involved. So the security wonks put an undercover informant into the stable, as a groom to see what they might find out.
What they found out was that ‘long about 1:00 AM, the trainer was coming out to the stable and putting horses on the hot walker…and leaving them there until 5:00 AM. Four hours on the walker at a brisk walk the morning of the day they were supposed to race. No wonder they were losing.
One of the most interesting “fixes” I ever heard of, which is supposedly true, didn’t involve anything illegal at all.
Back in the days before the Vegas casinos were a part of the tracks’ pari-mutuel network, you bet with the casino bookie at the odds the book offered. There were casinos that trumpeted that they would pay off at track odds on wagers made at their books. All very legal.
Well, with pari-mutuel wagering, if you bet a large sum of money to show on a horse that ultimately finishes out of the top three, you can skew the payoffs on the horses that do finish in the top three. You can actually have the show payoffs larger than the win payoffs.
What a syndicate of smart guys did was go to the casinos and find out which of them would pay track odds for bets at a small track out in the boonies somewhere– the kind of track where the mutuel handle for all the races for the whole day might be under $50,000, and the show pool for one race might be $3,000. And the smart guys made some bets with the books for races at this track, just long enough to establish credibility.
When the day for the score dawned, they had a guy go to the track and bet $5000 to show on a horse that was guaranteed to finish up the track. And then the other parties to the scheme went to the casino books all over town and put down substantial show bets on the horses that were pretty certain to finish in the top three.
It worked like a charm. The dud finished out of the money, and the payoffs to show on the other horses were in triple digits. The smart guys went to the casinos to cash in.
They collected their winnings, but were told in no uncertain terms that those would be the last bets they ever placed at those books. And they better leave town.
Can anyone explain hedge betting on horse races?
I have software that allows me to automatically place a correct hedge bet on a horse race and take a small profit before the race has even started. I have done this several times. Can anyone explain how this works before my head explodes!!!!
Let me try ! In order to hedge profitably you need to both BACK and LAY the same horse. For example you bet £10 to win @ 5/1 on a horse (Bet A). Let’s say the price of the horse comes in to 4/1. You then lay it to, say a £12 stake @ 4/1 (Bet B).
If the horse wins you WIN £50 on Bet A and LOSE £48 on Bet B. Nett gain = £50-£48 = £2 PROFIT
If the horse loses you LOSE £10 on Bet A and WIN £12 on Bet B. Nett gain = £12-£10 = £2 PROFIT
Hedging can only guarantee a profit if you can lay the horse at a lower price than you back it.
How does betting at races work?
Ive never really got how betting works, do you bet $500 and get double back? Is this how betting works, or is it some other way?